Welcome friends today, we're tackling a bit of an unconventional topic as we discuss the real estate market over the last decade. This analysis will provide us with valuable insights into how things have transpired in real estate, aiding us in making better decisions for both the near and long term.
Being in real estate, one must stay on top of market trends, and at Elixir, we do this on a month-to-month basis to better understand the market and inform our clients accordingly. Today, I thought it would be beneficial to do a special session to overview the entire last decade, offering a holistic and different perspective on the real estate market.
In this infographic, we see the TRREB MLS Sales that have occurred since 2011 up until 2023 in the Greater Toronto Area. From this data, we can infer and understand that the GTA average since 2011 is 90,000-95,000 transactions or sales in a given year. The last two years, 2022 and 2023, were outliers, and as you can see here, 2023 is by far the slowest year in terms of sheer sales and movement in the market. We will come back to these recent years shortly.
For now, let's step back and go to the start of 2011. The market continued consistently till 2015. However, 2016 was an outlier year when the market saw huge demand, and supply was not able to cope. There were 113,040 home sales in 2016. This surge was due to low borrowing costs, a strong economy, and low unemployment rates.
In October 2016, the Mortgage Stress Tests were introduced by OSFI for insured mortgages, with OSFI being the governing body of financial institutions. This introduction was to ensure that purchasers are comfortable with their payments in case the borrowing rates increase. However, this didn't dampen the market, and it surged crazily in the first quarter of 2017.
On April 20th, 2017, the Ontario government introduced a 16-point Fair Housing Plan to assist people in buying homes, increase supply, and protect buyers and renters.
The major point was the introduction of a 15% NRST (Non-Resident Speculation Tax) in the Greater Golden Horseshoe Area for any purchases made by individuals who are not citizens or permanent residents of Canada. Other points were also introduced to protect renters with rent control, action to boost the housing supply, etc. The market changed dramatically after this announcement in April 2016, and we saw those effects in the balance of 2017 and 2018.
Effective January 1st, 2018, the Stress Test was mandated even on uninsured mortgages. So, if you are contributing 20% or more towards the purchase of the property, a stress test is required. In 2018, irrespective of whether it was an insured or uninsured mortgage, everyone needed a stress test. The year 2018 saw only 78,017 sales, and the market remained buyer-driven, as we can see here in 2017, 2018, and 2019.
Then came 2020, and with it, the start of the pandemic. Restrictions were put in place, and pretty much everything came to a standstill. There was nothing called 'Business As Usual.' The heavy restrictions on movement and the shutting of businesses hampered consumer sentiments. From late-February to March 2020, the entire system, including Real Estate, was at a standstill. Unsure of what would happen next, there were a lot of properties sold by panicking sellers in April 2020, as consumers were scared and wary that global lockdowns would hit prices hard.
Meanwhile, in March 2020 itself, the Bank of Canada reduced the overnight rates three times, totaling a reduction of 150 basis points. From May 2020 onwards, the real estate market started to open with restrictions. The allure of incredibly low-interest rates attracted consumers to purchase. And despite all restrictions still in place globally, there were 95,056 homes sold in the year 2020 in the Greater Toronto Area.
With 2021, the low borrowing costs and easing of pandemic restrictions simultaneously drove up the demand for housing. In fact, the concept of remote working for certain job profiles also increased the demand for housing. People, looking to lower their mortgages, started to move to places outside the GTA, to places like Woodstock, London, Brantford in the West, and Clarington, Barrie, etc., in the East and North, with a lot of migration from the GTA outwards. Their job profiles allowed them to work from anywhere. As we see here, the market in the GTA alone saw a massive 121,712 sales in the region.
With this came the tightening of mortgage rates, and on March 3rd, 2022, the first 25 basis point increase was introduced, with 7 increases in 2022, totaling 400 basis points in the overnight rates. With the stress test already in place, this completely and directly impacts the eligibility and affordability of consumers. This ultimately translated to the market, and we saw that in a total buyer's inclined market in 2022 with only 75,047 sales in the GTA region. Effective October 25th 2022, the NRST (Non-resident Speculation Tax) was increased to 25% for all properties located anywhere in Ontario, and purchased by non-residents.
There were three more rate increases made in January, June, and July 2023 at 25 basis points each, which resulted in further reducing buyers' eligibility and the sentiments overall. The GTA TRREB MLS saw only 65,982 transactions in this past year of 2023.
If we see that in 2011 we had close to 90,000 sales in the Greater Toronto Area and the average in forthcoming years was similar. Consider how many new subdivisions have been built in the last 13 years across the GTA. Countless subdivisions were built in Brampton, Whitby, Oshawa, Milton, Oakville, Burlington, Caledon, and so on. With the sheer new volume of homes, still, in the last two years, we had remarkably low sales.
This tells us that there is a lot of latent demand that has now built up in the last two years, both on the selling and buying side. As and when we hear some correction in the rates, or with the reduction in fixed interest rates from major banks, it would result in an impetus to the sales.
Now, consider the humongous number of newer subdivisions that have been built across the Greater Toronto Area, and the sheer number of new homes that are available on the market as of today. In comparison to 2011, now we have a way more volume of dwellings available in the GTA region. There is a definite gap and spillover of transactions that will happen from the past couple of years to 2024 and 2025. This tells me that it is a good time for first-time homebuyers and move-up buyers to capitalize on the bottomed-out market.
The argument could be that the market could go even lower. However, that is difficult to predict, and the best guess based on the data I see is that it will gradually rise from here month to month.
Hope you find this insightful. Please share it with your colleagues and friends who might benefit from this analysis. For the best in class Real Estate services, reach out to our sincere team here at Elixir, and experience the difference.
Wish you all the very best! Reach out to our dedicated team at Elixir for any queries you have in Real Estate, and we will do our best to help.
Mudit Mehta
Broker of Record
ELIXIR REAL ESTATE INC.
Off: 416-816-6001 | [email protected]
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